This post is in response to
Bjorn Lomberg's WSJ article and multiple
recent publications on lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts of electric vehicles. The Lomberg article focuses on results from Hawkins et al. 2012 in the Journal of Industrial Ecology; The publication draws attention to the embedded energy and CO2 emissions associated with production of vehicle components unique to electric vehicles, like li-ion batteries, power electronics and motor(s). Good news: When compared to efficient - 34 mpg - gasoline vehicle models,
electric vehicles reduce global warming potential (GWP) by 20 to 24 percent when they use average European electricity. This GWP savings is lower than those predicted by other recent studies which account for reasonable decreases in US electricity emissions rates over the next ten years. A
study delivered to the CA Air Resources Board by UCLA used similar methods and assumptions to reveal that
an average conventional vehicle produces 63,000 kg of CO2 in its lifetime while an electric vehicle produces 32,000 kg of CO2, which is a lifecycle GHG emissions reduction of nearly 50%.
So, why are the results of these studies so different? Hawkins et al. point out that the GWP impact of production that they've calculated is almost twice the impact reported by previous studies. 50% of total lifecycle GWP intensity is from the production phase; 41% is from the battery, 8% is from the motor and 36% is from power electronics and cooling system manufacturing (15% is from other stuff associated with electric drive). Other publications which do a better job of cataloging and analyzing costs for EV specific components arrive at a 30% increase in emissions from manufacturing, compared to an average gasoline vehicle. If you add to this that EV manufacturers are offsetting additional emissions by developing and
using renewable energy at production facilities, this penalty evaporates.
From an email conversation with a prominent electric transportation and utility expert:
"The study finds that manufacturing emissions of plug-in electric vehicles is about double the manufacturing emissions of conventional vehicles. However, based on discussions with automakers, it appears that the motor and inverter materials are overestimated by about 3 times, while requirements for certain critical components that are unfamiliar to researchers accustomed to analyzing conventional vehicles, like rare earth magnets and copper windings, are overstated by an order of magnitude. The vehicle charger materials requirements are inexplicably overestimated by over 140 pounds."
On the topic of calculating GWP impacts of using an electric vehicle, there is no doubt that it is complicated. That's because the environmental benefits of driving an EV are
linked to the timing, duration and location of charging. For example
researchers at the Institute for Transportation Studies at UCDavis identified
through an electricity supply model that emissions associated with generation
vary greatly with hourly demand and power plant availability. Green house
gas (GHG) emissions associated with electricity generation also vary greatly across
geographic regions. For example, the US South, Midwest, and Western Rocky
states have more than 3 times greater EV GHG emission rates than the West Coast
and Northeast. An electric vehicle charged in California is likely to
produce 60% less well-to-wheel GHG emissions than a conventional gasoline
vehicle because of the mix of electricity generation sources. In 45% of US
regions, regardless of when it’s charged, an EV produces less well-to-wheel GHGemissions than even the cleanest hybrid vehicles. The BMW i-3 is expected
to achieve a 50% reduction in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions largely
due to the integration of GE in both production and use phases of the vehicle.
It's also worth mentioning that EV owners support renewable energy by investing in solar. A survey of customers who participated in a
two-year all electric MINI E US field trial revealed a strong user preference
for charging EVs with solar (100%) and wind (98%) energy. The same survey of
former US MINI E owners found that 37% owned solar by the end of the field
trial. This result was re-confirmed by a recent survey of California EV owners
(96% Nissan Leaf owners) which found that 39% have invested in home solar
systems (n=1419), helping to “fuel” their vehicles with renewable solar energy.
I'll save the discussion on impacts of recycling and disposal for another post.
The Hawkin's et al. publication tells us that electric vehicles are an impactful and disruptive technological breakthrough with huge and reasonable environmental benefits. Lomberg reminds WSJ readers that buying a coal-powered Nissan Leaf and tossing it after 50K miles is 25% more polluting than driving on gasoline. Thanks dude.